XAUUSD price forecast.
Our medium-term outlook for gold, updated quarterly. Based on the interplay of US real yields, central bank demand, geopolitical positioning, and technical structure.
Macro backdrop
The Fed's rate cycle appears near its peak, with rate cuts on the horizon for H2 2026. Falling real yields are historically gold's strongest tailwind. Central bank buying — particularly from BRICS nations — remains at multi-decade highs, providing a structural floor.
Technical structure
Gold broke out of a multi-year base above $2,400 in 2024 and has sustained the breakout with higher lows. The weekly uptrend is intact. Near-term resistance sits at $3,380; a weekly close above that targets $3,450. Support at $3,180 is the line to watch on the downside.
Risk to the thesis
A surprise re-acceleration in US CPI (forcing the Fed to resume hikes), or a sharp dollar spike from a geopolitical risk-off move, could temporarily push gold below $3,000. This would not change the medium-term bullish thesis but would offer a better entry opportunity.